Both the First and Second World Wars
have been called Western civil wars. What they were, in essence. The
cold war was different: at least initially it was really a
confrontation between different ideologies, between the liberal West
and messianistic Communism, calling the «servile masses» to the
«last fight». Of course, this internationalist-revolutionary battle
cry little by little changed into a slogan hiding clear geopoltical
aims and ambitions of the USSR, a country that had to realize it had
to take over part of the role the former Russian Empire had played in
the world. Still, it didn't completely renounce the aggressivity it
had inherited from its revolutionary past. It happened only after the
deal between Gorbatchev and the Western leaders in the eighties. Now,
after a pause of about thirty years, a new cold war between Russia
and the West is looming again. It's immediate cause is recent
annexation of Crimea, formally a part of Ukraine, by Russia, and
Russia's other aggressive steps toward its smaller neighbour. Here,
by and large, the Western opinion seems to agree: Russia has returned
to its Soviet past, becoming an expansionist power striving to
reconquer its former sphere of influence. Naturally, this
expansionism must be met with stiff resistance, the West must
mobilize its resources to push the Russians back and show them such a
behaviour is not acceptable.
However, there are some dissident
voices in this choir of Russia-bashers. Former US Secretary of State
Henry Kissinger, former US ambassador in Moscow Jack Matlock and the
CEO of the prestigious Stratfor Institute George Friedman consider
Russian moves in Ukraine a reaction to Western moves, first of all
the expansion of NATO, as gravely jeopardizing its security. In his
book «The Next Hundred Years» Dr Friedman writes that Russia «will
take actions that will appear to be aggressive but in fact are
defensive. It will focus on recovering influence and control in the
former Soviet Union, re-creating the system of buffers it once had.»
This was written in 2009. In the same book, he explains his views
more in detail:
«The Orange Revolution in Ukraine,
from December 2004 to January 2005, was the moment when the post-Cold
War world genuinely ended for Russia. The Russians saw the events in
Ukraine as an attempt by the United States to draw Ukraine into NATO
and thereby set the stage for Russian disintegration. Quite frankly,
there was some truth to the Russian perception. If the West had
succeeded in dominating Ukraine, Russia would have become
indefensible. The southern border with Belarus, as well as the
southwestern frontier of Russia, would have been wide open.»
He
predicts too that the West will not accept this attempts by
Russia to extend its zone of influence: «The United States -- and
the countries within the old Soviet sphere -- will not want Russia to
go too far.» This prediction has come true: the West has vigorously
responded to the annexation of Crimea and other Russian steps in
Ukraine. Mostly, this response has been demonstrative and symbolic.
There are no signs of an imminent military confrontation between
«East» and «West», but the cold war is gaining momentum. And, as
always, the first victim in any cold or hot war is truth. In both
Russia, and in the West, propagandistic discourse is taking over.
Thus, it is very important to listen to other voices, to the
dissidents as the analysts I mentioned.
Now, I have some reason to
include another
authoritative
person to this group of dissidents, namely the former British Prime
Minister Tony Blair. In
his
recent
speech.
Mr. Blair considers the most grave threat to the Westas
well as
to Russia and China, i.e. to the (more
or less) civilized and developed
world, the creeping advance of the islamic extremism. He
says
«that
Western leaders must "elevate the issue of religious extremism
to the top of the agenda". And
they must co-operate with other countries - "in particular,
Russia and China" - regardless of "other differences".»
to
quote from the BBC's summary of his speech. We can see Mr Blair's
speech as a warning to both Western and Russian leaders to put aside
their differences, even the present grave crisis, not to engage in a
new civil cold war, but find ways to counter the danger of
obscurantist
ideology gaining ground in many regions. We chould take this warning
very seriously. In some aspects, the Islamic extremism is similar to
Fascism and Communism. It is a militant ideology that strives to
destroy the old world with its institutions and values and replace it
with something that, for Europeans, belong to the dark ages.
Unfortunately, this ideology is propagated by circles closely
connected with ruling groups in some close allies of the West, as in
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. For this reason, the West tends to be more
or less silent about the grave abuses (and in some case, the virtual
absence) of human rights in these and other islamic countries and the
spread of the jihadist ideology in the Islamic and even non-Islamic
World. This complacency, understandable
in short perspective, can become disastrous in future. I think the
West and Russia must find ways to reach an understanding. It is not
impossible, and it is important.
I'd like to add a link to a blog by M. K. Bhadrakumar, former ambassador of India i.a. in Moscow: http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/04/17/ukraine-no-winners-only-losers/.
I'd like to add a link to a blog by M. K. Bhadrakumar, former ambassador of India i.a. in Moscow: http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/04/17/ukraine-no-winners-only-losers/.
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